Pickleloaf.com : Books : Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence


Books : Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence In association with Amazon.com Rating: - Bryce can't deal with Hubbert's Peak The major problem with this book is that it attempts to sidestep the overwhelming empirical and statistical analysis that M K Hubbert presented in 1969 showing that the world's oil production would reach its peak in 2000.A minor correction was made by K S Deffeyes showing that ,due to a minor error made by Hubbert,the world's peak would occur in the year 2005.On pp. 33-35 Bryce mentions Hubbert's and Deffeyes's results without telling the reader that the logistics model applied by Hubbert(Deffeyes) fits the data to A BELL SHAPED CURVE WITH AN ACCURACY OF 99.9 %.Bryce attempts to rewrite the conclusions of Hubbert and Deffeyes by claiming that they are claiming that the world is running out of oil(p.35).Hubbert and Deffeyes,contrary to Bryce ,are stating that all of the empirical and statistical data show that the world is running out of low to medium priced oil.Nowhere in his book does Bryce challenge the fundamental results produced by Hubbert and Deffeyes.The fundamental conclusion of Hubbert and Deffeyes is that the price of a barrel of oil will continue to rise,be it slowly or quickly, in real terms from 2005(2000) on . This is exactly what has been happening since mid 2005 with a major exponential increase from September,2007 through June,2008.The rise has been exacerbated by Ben Bernanke's(aided by a number of other foreign central banks)attempted 1.2 trillion dollar bailout of Wall Street's, and their private commercial banker allies,speculative behavior.The result has been the decimation of the value of the dollar and massive inflationary increases in the cost of food and energy . The rest of the book deals with a number of non related issues that only serves to cloud the main point of the book,which was to supposedly demonstrate that the goal of energy independence was fatally flawed.I can find little support for Bryce's claim . Rating: - The Gusher of Lies The Gusher of Lies by Robert Bryce is a voice of reason amid an abundance of ignorance, anxiety and political rants. With each passing day it is becoming obvious to more Americans that we must demand a common sense energy plan. He debunks the lies, gives clarity of purpose and leaves the reader with a call to action. There are a number of books on energy history. Some help us understand how we went from "whale oil" to today. However, "Gusher" does the best job of thinking through what problems we are really trying to solve. American's are already taking action to reduce demand. Bryce has set the table to help build an energy supply plan. A plan with immediate, midrange and longterm solutions. The three questions he asks are, will the action increase energy supply? Will it reduce energy costs? What is the environmental impact? The answers to these questions are the foundation of a necessary energy plan. The author identifies the lies and distractions from ethanol to frivolous lawsuits which need to be exposed to prevent further time and money wasted. The book doesn't support a political position. It supports the American energy customer. If Gusher of Lies effects you as it did me, you will demand and want to contribute to a call to action. Rating: - Pipeline to Truth Bryce confirms what I had already suspected. The goals of energy independence and replacing fossil fuels with 'green' alternatives are utterly unrealistic. Conventional sources of power (coal, oil, nuclear) are conventional because these are the only economically viable means of providing energy to billions of people, especially those with modern conveniences. Bryce deserves credit for taking the unpopular side of controversial issues. Energy is a serious issue, so the nonsense spouted by the left and the right needs to be rebutted. This book should be widely read because only a shift in public opinion will bring sanity to how we handle energy issues. Rating: - Exposing the Economic Fallacies of "Energy Independence" This is an excellent book that exposes and refutes the many economic fallacies underlying the idea of energy independence. Robert Bryce's thesis is that not only is energy independence undesirable but it is utterly unrealistic. He backs up his claims with a lot of persuasive economic arguments. Several fascinating facts contained in this book include: * Striving for energy independence amounts to embracing isolationism with respect to the energy market. History indicates that economic isolationism has never been to any country's advantage. * Various estimates on the economics of energy conversion. For example, the author cites several studies, which collectively estimate that for each BTU (British Thermal Unit) of input into corn ethanol produces between .7 BTUs to 1.2 BTUs of output. In contrast, each BTU into crude oil typically yields 6 to 7 BTUs of output. Similarly, the estimates in this book indicate that 1 BTU yields 8 BTU for sugar cane ethanol, .5 BTU for cellulosic ethanol (switchgrass) and .73 BTU of soybean ethanol. * Big oil is not multinational corporations such as Exxon Mobil and BP. According to this book, the ten largest owners of oil reserves are all national corporations such as Saudi Aramco and the National Iranian Oil Company. * Ethanol production requires enormous quantities of water. According to the author's research, a gallon of ethanol produced from irrigated corn requires as much water as the amount contained in 25 bathtubs. * When calculating the fuel efficiency for a given vehicle, the federal government counts only the amount of gasoline (i.e., not ethanol) that the vehicle consumes. Thus, flex-fuel vehicles have the illusions of getting better miles per dollar spent on fuel. * Economically isolating Iran is essentially impossible, as there is hundreds of billions of international investment in developing the rogue nation's resources. This includes, but is not limited to, the national oil company of Brazil undergoing deepwater exploration in the Caspian Sea, China developing several of the North Pars natural gas fields and India and Pakistan financing the "peace pipeline" to transport natural gas from Iran into their respective countries. The author alleges that even Halliburtion (which is commonly associated with Vice President Cheney) was doing work in Iran through a subsidiary in the Cayman Islands as recently as 2007. (!) To read more detailed corroborations of the above discussion points, as well as other in depth discussions on important topics such as the sugarcane ethanol industry in Brazil, how increased ethanol content in gasoline will arguably result in worse air quality, how moving towards greater ethanol use will require an enormous usage of farm land, the neoconservatives who are being pushing for energy independence as a matter of national security, the individuals who lobby extensively for farm subsidies and so much more, you will need to check out this book for yourself! For the sake of constructive criticism, I do have a few complaints about this book. First, the author seems to insinuate that terrorism will go away if ignored. I strongly disagree with this view but this is not the appropriate place for a rebuttal. Although this view is repeated a few times in various forms throughout the book, its detraction was dwarfed by the magnificent value contained throughout the rest of the pages. Second, there are a few other ludicrous assertions periodically dispersed throughout the book. For example, the claim that "oil brings poverty and war" where Nigeria and Iraq are cited as examples. I highly doubt that oil is the causal factor here. Dictatorship and corrupt governments, more likely, bring poverty and war. As with my first complaint, although this was irritating, it is hardly frequent enough to undermine the value of this book as a whole. Overall I highly recommend this book for anyone wanting a better picture of the global energy industry. Not only is this book clearly written, but it is also supplemented with an extensive amount of references as well as plenty of statistical figures that are quite illustrative. Rating: - Poor Logic Bryce starts out strongly asserting that it seems like everybody wants energy independence, but that this is neither desirable nor doable for the U.S. He goes on to point out that fuel imports are just one facet of our import picture - while we import about 60% of our total oil needs, we also import 80% of our semiconductors. (Logic Problem: Maybe both situations are bad for the U.S.) Then Bryce downplays oil imports by claiming that Americans in early 2007 paid less for gas in inflation-adjusted dollars than in 1919. (Perhaps, but not in mid-2008!) Bryce is correct in reporting that we pay enormously for oil supply security - about $3 trillion (per Stiglitz) for just Iraq II, plus bases in other mid-East areas, Africa, and protecting a pipeline in Columbia. However, he makes no effort to total these expenditures, and ends simply railing against other nations that get a "free ride" from U.S. activities. Declining oil supplies are dismissed by a)pointing out prior predictions have been incorrect, and b)supply and demand will always balance at a market-clearing price. The former carries no weight of logic (and counters the thinking of many experts), and the latter is an irrelevant point that ignores the impact of likely much higher costs and lower supplies. As for climate change- Bryce dances around that one as well - he would have done better to not even brought the topic up. On to petrodollars supporting terrorism. Again, its "not a problem" if you don't bother with data, and use irrelevant "before" and/or non-Saudi Arabian oil evidence. Other authors devote considerable effort to make the case for increased conservation. Not Bryce. After a few pages he dismisses this too - not hard to do when you lack data and neglect to push the topic to the max (eg. doubling fuel-economy standards and road taxes - our roads are a mess; possibly generating power from tide motion, etc.) One area Bryce deserves credit for - exploding ethanol as an ineffectual cost and environmental solution, to say nothing of its impact on food costs.